If you've been catching more buzz about the northern lights recently, there's a solid reason behind it. The aurora borealis has been unusually active, and scientists are forecasting an even greater surge in auroral activity in the upcoming year as we approach the solar maximum – the zenith of the solar cycle. Here's the lowdown on what's happening with the sun and how it's poised to impact the frequency and intensity of the northern lights.
The Northern Lights Could Shine Extra Bright This Year
Understanding the Solar Cycle
The sun, a fiery sphere of electrically charged gas, generates a magnetic field with north and south poles as it undergoes constant movement. Roughly every 11 years, these magnetic poles undergo a flip, triggering heightened solar activity on the sun's surface, marked by sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
Jason Steffen, an assistant professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, explains, "Sometimes people refer to this 11-year cycle as the solar cycle or as the sunspot cycle, but the whole cycle takes 22 years for the magnetic field to return to its original orientation. Sunspots do have an 11-year cycle because they form on the sun and migrate toward its equator every 11 years. Sunspots don't care which direction the magnetic field is pointing."
Decoding Solar Maximum
To gauge solar activity, scientists often tally the number of sunspots, temporary areas of high magnetism, on the sun's surface. The solar maximum is the phase with the highest number of sunspots in the 11-year sunspot cycle. Steffen notes, "When sunspots are present, they cause a lot of solar weather – bursts, flares, coronal mass ejections, and the like. So, there is a lot of 'magnetic activity' or 'solar activity' or 'space weather' during the maximum."
When Will Solar Maximum Arrive?
Initially, in 2019, a panel comprising the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA, and International Space Environment Services (ISES) anticipated reaching solar maximum by 2025. However, a new NOAA model from October 2023 suggests an earlier timeline, placing the solar maximum between January 2024 and October 2024. Additionally, this updated model predicts more significant activity during the solar maximum than initially foreseen.
Although the solar maximum for the current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25) is expected to be relatively weak compared to past cycles, Solar Cycle 2025 is anticipated to be stronger, peaking between 134 and 177 sunspots, according to the latest model. You can monitor the solar cycle's progress at swpc.noaa.gov.
How Will Solar Maximum Impact the Northern Lights?
The aurora borealis and its Southern Hemisphere counterpart, the aurora australis, manifest when energized particles from the sun, emitted during periods of high solar activity, collide with the Earth's magnetic field. These particles fluoresce on their journey toward the magnetic poles, giving rise to the northern and southern lights. As solar maximum represents the pinnacle of solar activity in a cycle, we can anticipate more frequent and intense auroras.
Additional Effects of Increased Solar Activity
Fortunately, Earth's magnetic field offers us substantial protection against solar emissions. However, this doesn't imply an absence of impact. Steffen explains, "If there are particularly large CMEs, they can affect satellites and some communication systems. It will also affect radio communications that rely on reflecting their signals off the ionosphere." During intense solar storms, some technologies may experience brief blackouts.
As we navigate this surge in solar activity, sky enthusiasts can eagerly anticipate a celestial display of the northern lights, painting the night sky with unprecedented brilliance.
This is lowkey amazing, keep it up!
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